How do you decide when to send a Bitcoin transaction?

Most advice around Bitcoin transactions focuses on fee estimators, mempool charts, or sat/vB targets.

Over time, I noticed that for me the real decision happens one step earlier.

Before numbers, I ask myself:

Does the network feel normal and predictable right now, or unstable?

When the network feels predictable:

– I’m comfortable sending

– I don’t rush

– I don’t overpay “just in case”

When it feels erratic:

– I hesitate

– I delay non-urgent transactions

– I sometimes overpay to reduce uncertainty

I’m curious how others think about this.

Do you decide primarily based on:

– fee estimators?

– mempool depth?

– urgency / time preference?

– or a more qualitative sense of network behavior?